Niel Flamm Niel Flamm

The Powerball Department Is Now Open: 120 Tickets, 12 Brothers, and the Niel Tax™

I put together a lot more than just buying 120 Powerball tickets this week.


Somewhere between spreadsheets, probability calculations, payout estimates, tax assumptions, and trying to explain to a group of fraternity brothers why $4 divided by 12 doesn't make anyone rich, I may have accidentally become the Chief Financial Officer of the Tau Epsilon Phi Lottery Department.


The easy part is collecting everyone's $20.


The hard part is answering the important questions.


“What are our odds?”


With 120 unique tickets:

  • Jackpot: about 1 in 2,435,012

  • Percentage chance: 0.0000411%

  • Any prize: approximately 99.27%

  • Chance of winning nothing: approximately 0.73%


Then came the inevitable follow-up.


“What happens if we actually win?”


Now we're talking.


Using the current estimated $856 million advertised jackpot and an estimated $372 million cash option, with 12 brothers, everyone would receive approximately:

Prize Estimated Take-Home Per Brother

Jackpot $17.67 million

$1,000,000 $47,500

$50,000 $2,375

$100 $4.75


Then I looked at the remaining prize tiers.


A $7 prize split twelve ways is...


58 cents.


A $4 prize?


33 cents.


Unfortunately, Zelle has one tiny flaw in its business model:


It won't let me send you 33 cents.


Therefore, after careful consultation with absolutely nobody, I have created what will forever be known as...


The Niel Tax™

Any prize that works out to less than $1 per participant will be retained by the Lottery Commissioner — me — as a convenience fee for:

  • Collecting everyone's money

  • Buying the tickets

  • Tracking the numbers

  • Calculating the odds

  • Estimating federal and South Carolina taxes

  • Explaining for the fifteenth time that “1 in 2.4 million” is actually pretty good compared to one ticket

  • And, perhaps most importantly, avoiding the embarrassment of sending eleven separate Zelle payments for 33 cents


Think of it as an administrative processing fee.


Or a beverage fund.


Or reimbursement for the gas it takes to drive to Harris Teeter while getting strange looks from the cashier after buying what appears to be enough lottery tickets to finance a small nation.


If we win the jackpot, I promise to waive the Niel Tax.


If we win $4...


Well...


Congratulations.


I just earned another Coke Zero.


Good luck, Lotto Dudes.


Somebody has to win.

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