Day 90: What If Nextdoor Is Trying to Serve Too Many Customers at Once?

Day 90.

Ninety consecutive days of looking at Nextdoor from different angles.

Yesterday, NXDR closed at $2.27. That's up from the $2.23 close I discussed on Day 88, but I'm not going to spend Day 90 dissecting four cents.

Instead, I want to ask a completely different question:

Who exactly is Nextdoor's customer?

Sounds simple.

I'm not sure it is.

Meet the Nextdoor Family

Think about all the different people Nextdoor is trying to satisfy.

There's the neighbor who wants to know why three police cars just went down the street.

There's the small-business owner who wants customers.

There's the advertiser who wants access to those neighbors.

There's the moderator trying to keep everyone from digitally strangling each other over political signs and dog poop.

There's the researcher or marketer interested in Nextdoor's Insights.

There's the shareholder—hello!—who wants the company to create sustainable value.

And then there's Nextdoor itself, which has to somehow turn this entire neighborhood block party into a profitable business.

That's a lot of people sitting at one table.

And they don't necessarily want the same meal.

The Neighbor Doesn't Wake Up Thinking About Monetization

I doubt many people roll out of bed thinking:

“I hope Nextdoor improves its advertising yield today.”

Neighbors want utility.

What's happening?

Who can fix my air conditioner?

Did somebody find my dog?

Why is the power out?

Is that restaurant any good?

What's being built down the street?

And, naturally:

“Did anyone else hear that boom?”

That's the product from the neighbor's perspective.

But there's a problem.

The neighbor may be the person using the product...

without being the person primarily paying for it.

That's where things get interesting.

The Advertiser Wants Something Completely Different

The advertiser doesn't necessarily care whether Karen and Steve finally resolve their six-day dispute over Steve's garbage cans.

The advertiser wants:

Attention.

Preferably local attention.

And preferably attention from people likely to buy something.

That creates a balancing act.

Nextdoor needs enough people using the platform to make the audience valuable to advertisers.

But if monetizing that audience makes the experience less useful, those people may use Nextdoor less.

And then the audience becomes less valuable.

Welcome to the social-media hamster wheel.

Then Along Comes the Small Business

This is where Nextdoor has another interesting relationship.

The local business can simultaneously be:

Content creator.

Advertiser.

Community participant.

Recommended business.

Potential paying customer.

That's a lot of hats.

Nextdoor wants neighbors to recommend local businesses organically because those recommendations build trust and create useful content.

But Nextdoor also needs to make money from businesses.

That's not inherently wrong.

Nextdoor is a public company, not a neighborhood charity.

The interesting question is where the line sits between:

Helping local businesses participate

and

Monetizing their need to reach neighbors.

That's a strategic question worth watching.

And Then There Are Shareholders

This is the group I belong to.

I don't need Nextdoor to be free of advertising.

I want revenue growth.

I want profitability.

I want innovation.

I want management making intelligent investments.

And yes...

I want NXDR worth more than $2.27.

But here's the catch.

If Nextdoor squeezes too much money out of the platform and damages the neighbor experience, that isn't necessarily good for shareholders long-term.

If Nextdoor focuses exclusively on making neighbors happy but can't build a profitable business around them, that's not particularly helpful either.

The interests are connected.

Maybe Nextdoor Isn't One Product

This is the thought that really interests me on Day 90.

Maybe we're evaluating Nextdoor incorrectly by thinking of it as one product.

It may actually be several products sharing the same neighborhood.

To the neighbor, Nextdoor sells connection and information.

To the local business, it sells visibility and potential customers.

To the advertiser, it sells access and attention.

To researchers and marketers, it offers neighborhood insights.

And to shareholders, management is ultimately selling something else:

The promise that all of those pieces can become a valuable business.

That's a difficult puzzle.

Imagine Trying to Run This Restaurant

Imagine opening a restaurant where one customer wants steak.

Another wants vegan.

Another wants breakfast.

Another wants cocktails.

Another wants everything free.

And there's a shareholder standing near the kitchen asking why the margins aren't better.

Hi. I'm the guy near the kitchen.

Meanwhile, the chef is doing podcasts explaining the future of restaurants.

At some point somebody has to decide:

What's our signature dish?

That's what I'm asking about Nextdoor.

What Is the One Thing Nextdoor Must Be Exceptional At?

Not 17 things.

One.

Is Nextdoor primarily:

The place to discover what's happening nearby?

The place to connect with neighbors?

The place to discover trusted local businesses?

A hyperlocal advertising platform?

A neighborhood recommendation engine?

A source of uniquely valuable local data?

Maybe it can eventually be all of those things.

But companies usually become indispensable because they're exceptionally good at something.

Then they expand.

And That Brings Me Back to $2.27

NXDR closed yesterday at $2.27.

Four cents higher than the $2.23 close I discussed earlier this week.

Good.

As a shareholder, I'll happily take the four cents.

But Day 90 isn't about whether the stock moved four cents.

It's about what eventually moves it forty cents, a dollar, or several dollars—and keeps it there.

That requires more than announcements.

It requires a business people understand.

A product neighbors value.

An ecosystem businesses value.

An audience advertisers value.

And a strategy shareholders believe will eventually create sustainable returns.

That's a lot of customers to keep happy.

Day 90: Who Gets the Best Seat at the Table?

So after 90 days, here's today's question:

When the interests of neighbors, businesses, advertisers, and shareholders collide, who comes first?

Because saying everyone comes first sounds wonderful.

Until two of them want completely different things.

That's when corporate strategy stops being a mission statement and becomes a decision.

And those decisions may ultimately tell us far more about Nextdoor's future than whether NXDR closed yesterday at $2.27 or $2.23.

Ninety days down.

And somehow, I still haven't run out of doors to open.

Follow my continuing Nextdoor case study at NielFlamm.com/blog.