The stock is rising, earnings are approaching, and I'm watching the same story unfold again.
I checked where Nextdoor Holdings (NXDR) was trading as I wrote this post: $2.64 per share.
Am I shocked? Not at all.
In fact, I expect the price to continue rising as we approach the next earnings report, scheduled for November 2. My theory is that short-term buyers are positioning themselves ahead of the announcement, hoping to benefit from the excitement and whatever numbers Nextdoor puts on the table.
That's my expectation, not a certainty. The market can always surprise us.
But here's what I think may happen.
The Run-Up to November 2
I expect NXDR to keep climbing through the earnings announcement and potentially for a few days afterward.
I also expect the earnings narrative to paint a glorious picture of Nextdoor-land.
Weekly active users are up. Revenue is up. Sales are up. The company will likely emphasize its progress, its advertising opportunities, and the potential of its neighborhood platform.
And those numbers may well show genuine progress. I'm not suggesting that improved metrics are meaningless.
But there's a bigger question that doesn't get answered by a polished earnings presentation:
What does all that progress mean for the long-term investor?
A company can report improving metrics and still leave investors waiting for a meaningful return. Revenue growth, user engagement, and operational progress are important, but they don't automatically translate into sustained stock appreciation or shareholder distributions.
That's the distinction I keep coming back to.
Why I Sold My Shares
I sold my NXDR shares on October 12.
I could only hold on for so long, waiting for the promise to turn into execution and for the long-term investment case to become more compelling.
I reached a point where I decided to sell at the price available to me rather than continue waiting for a future that might or might not arrive.
I don't regret that decision, even though the stock is now at $2.64.
Could it rise further? Absolutely.
Could it fall after earnings? That's possible, too.
I don't have a crystal ball, and I won't pretend to know what the market will do. I based my decision on my own assessment of the investment and how long I was willing to wait.
A rising stock price doesn't automatically answer the long-term questions.
A Facebook Reminder Took Me Back a Year
A few days ago, Facebook reminded me of something I had posted about a year earlier.
That reminder took me back to the beginning of my study of Nextdoor, Nirav Tolia, and the gap between the company's promises and its execution.
I began looking beyond the marketing messages and asking questions about users' experience on the platform.
What happens when the company removes posts and comments? How consistent is moderation? Where does accountability sit? How does the company respond when people raise questions? And how effectively does leadership listen to feedback?
Over time, my focus expanded to include research transparency, commercializing neighborhood knowledge, corporate governance, and the relationship between company performance and long-term shareholder value.
What started as a closer look at one platform became an ongoing case study of a public company and its leadership.
And here I am, roughly a year later, still asking some of the same questions.
The CEO, the X Posts and the Questions That Remain
One thing I documented early in this project was that Nirav Tolia hadn't reached out to the public in response to the issues I raised. I even started a countdown to track how much time passed.
Since then, Nirav has posted on X, but he has also blocked me twice from participating in conversations on his posts.
He has every right to control his own social media account. I don't know why he blocked me, and I won't pretend to.
But I do find the contrast interesting.
There are public conversations about topics that don't necessarily change the landscape of the platform, while questions about moderation, communication, accountability, and execution remain unresolved from my perspective.
Posting on X is communication. Blocking someone is a personal choice. Neither action, by itself, tells us whether the organization is listening to difficult feedback or fixing underlying problems.
The question isn't whether a CEO posts. It's whether the company learns, adapts, and follows through.
What About the Board?
This brings me to Nextdoor's board of directors.
A board has responsibilities that extend beyond supporting the CEO's strategy. Directors are expected to exercise independent judgment, oversee management, and consider the company's long-term interests.
I have questions about whether Nextdoor's governance provides enough visible accountability and whether leadership is effectively challenged when execution falls short.
I don't have evidence that the board is improperly aligned with Nirav, and I won't claim that it is. Directors can support a CEO while still exercising independent oversight.
But from the outside, shareholders and the public have limited visibility into the substance of those internal discussions.
If the board believes the current direction is working, it should be able to point to measurable results and explain how it evaluates progress, risk and leadership performance.
If problems persist, shareholders should understand how those concerns are being addressed.
A board's job isn't simply to stand behind the CEO. It's to help ensure the company delivers.
The Same Story, Another Earnings Report
As November 2 approaches, I expect the conversation around Nextdoor to focus on its numbers.
How many weekly active users? How much revenue? How strong are sales? What is management saying about the future?
Those are all reasonable questions.
But I will also be looking for evidence that the company is addressing the issues that don't fit neatly into a quarterly earnings slide: user trust, moderation, transparency, accountability, and the ability to turn a promising platform into a durable business.
I'm no longer a shareholder, but I still want Nextdoor to succeed. I would like to see it build a stronger business and deliver lasting value.
For now, I see a stock at $2.64, an earnings report approaching, and a year-old set of questions that still deserves attention.
The market may reward the next earnings narrative. The more important test is whether Nextdoor can sustain its progress beyond the announcement.
A good earnings report can move a stock. Consistent execution is what builds a business.
I'll be watching what Nextdoor reports on November 2—and, just as importantly, what happens after the headlines fade.
👉 Follow the continuing Nextdoor case study at NielFlamm.com/blog.
